The violence in Tibet is an indication of the chaos that could result from the Olympics in China.
An article by the Christian Science Monitor posits an explanation as to why this years annual protests in Tibet are more volatile than they have been in decades. Anne Holmes, the director of the Free Tibet Campaign in London, said in the article that the Tibetans "are aware that in the run-up to the Beijing Olympics, the media's and the world's eyes are on Tibet. They felt it was worth the risk of doing a lot more this year than they would normally dream of doing. Tibetans see this as a make or break year. This is the year when world attention is focused on China's human rights record."
Holmes is not entirely correct. It's not that the world's attention is suddenly on China now that the Olympics are coming to Beijing. The world's attention has been on China for a long time. The Olympics have introduced the threat of countries boycotting the Olympics in Beijing. That is, the Chinese government is afraid of losing face, and this gives people in China like the Tibetans great leverage when protesting. For instance, an incident even remotely similar to the massacre in Tiananmen Square in 1989 would make the Beijing Olympics a huge failure. It would be very embarrassing for the Chinese government if the USA or an EU nation refused to attend the Olympics. One has to query whether China would acquiesce to the demands of a country that refused to attend unless China kowtowed to the demands of the Tibetans?
An article by the Associated Pressed had this to say:
The violence, which came on the fifth day of sporadic and largely peaceful protests, poses difficulties for a communist leadership that has looked to the Aug. 8-24 Olympics as a way to recast China as a friendly, modern power. Too rough a crackdown could put that at risk while balking could embolden protesters, costing Beijing authority in often restive Tibet.
"China is afraid of letting this protest mount. On the other hand, the world's eyes are upon China in advance of the Olympics. If they're too heavy-handed, it could cause them a lot of problems," said Jamie Metzl of the New York-based Asia Society. "It's an open question as to how much China thinks it can afford a major crisis in advance of the Summer Olympics."
There is another concern that has yet to be articulated (or I have yet to see it), and it's a very real concern of the Chinese government. That is, what if the Chinese citizenry realize that the communist party cannot exert its military power outside of Beijing? The massacre that occurred at Tiananmen Square in 1989 could be unique to Beijing. Granted, the Chinese government expected and prepared for the protests in Lhasa but can they really provide sufficient support in Lhasa to suppress an outright revolt? What about other revolts?
It's no big secret that China has been doing its best to prevent the people in rural China from revolting as the government continues to force farmers off of their land in the name of economic progress and development. Then there are the migrant construction workers who live in shanty-towns and barely make enough to live. The same people that build a country can dismantle a country, and the migrant construction workers could tear down China's infrastructure as easily-- if not easier-- than they did building it. There are also the coal miners who tirelessly work in the mines and risk being buried alive on a daily basis. The same miners that dug those mines could bury them and cut-off the supply of coal or use their knowledge of demolition to blow up railroads, buildings, telecommunications, or even dams.
Does the central government have the military might to suppress this kind of uprising? Would it dare just prior to the summer Olympics? Does this give the Chinese government a greater incentive to shut down the protests in Lhasa before it officially sets off a domino effect that could ripple through the entire country? And what if Taiwan joins in the chorus and decides it's time to declare independence? Would the Chinese government risk a war with Taiwan and possibly the USA just prior to the Olympics?
For more about the protests and violence occurring in Tibet, read this article by Sophie Beach at the always excellent China Digital Times.
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