With much of the world's attention focused on North Korea, Iraq, and Iran, the impending war between Somalia and Ethiopia has largely gone unnoticed by the Western world. On October 9th, it was reported that several hundred Ethiopian soldiers entered the small town of Burhakaba, well inside Somali territory. There have long been reports that Ethiopian troops are also present in Baidoa, where a UN recognized (but not widely Somali recognized) transitional government resides, as well as reports of Ethiopian military planes landing on dirt strips within Somalia. Fearing international condemnation, Ethiopia has, somewhat unconvincingly, denied the presence of their troops. In response, Islamist leader Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, usually viewed as a more moderate voice in Somalia, declared jihad on Ethiopia, raising additional fears of a regional conflict. Ahmed had previously been involved in negotiations for a power-sharing deal with the transitional government in Baidoa. Those negotiations now look very much in doubt.
The history between Somalia and Ethiopia is tainted by distrust, animosity, and war. Ethiopia views Somalia and it's long, porous border as a place where attacks against it by its own active rebel groups, as well as others, could be launched. Tension has been particularly heightened since Somalia descended into anarchy 15 years ago and the country divided into armed clans controlled by warlords. Somalia has always maintained that
Ethiopia occupies a part of its territory - the Ogaden region - ceded by the British colonialists to Ethiopia in 1897. The conflict led to numerous confrontations between Somlia and Ethiopia, including the bloody 1977 war that was costly for both nations. Since the 1960's both have continued to support the rebel movements of the other with no end in sight.
Somali Islamists are cleverly appealing to nationalist as well as religious sentiment to reach beyond the country's divisive clan politics. As the Economist explains, some of this is undoubtedly bluster, designed to keep a fractious coalition of Islamists happy, especially given the fact that the warlords have no conventional army to speak of and are unlikely to muster enough unity to bring such a force together to defend against Ethiopia, the Horn's largest and most powerful military. Though the Islamists are reported to have acquired anti-aircraft guns and other air defense systems from Eritrea (Ethiopia's usual #1 enemy) and other shady Arab sponsors, which might deter Ethiopia from air strikes, they are no match to take on Ethiopia in conventional, cross-border warfare. Instead, the fear is that the radicals among the Islamists will resort with terrorists strikes. The "T word" should raise the eyebrows of interested Western parties.
A holy war in the horn would prove devastating for the entire region, including Kenya. Western governments have long feared any incursion by Ethiopia, viewed by many Somalis as a Christian imperial power, could give foreign jihadis a reason to flood Somalia as the newest battleground of Islam against the West. Bad memories of military action in the failed state give the West, particularly the US, incentive to prevent such an outcome. Worst case scenario is that Osama bin Laden's call for the Horn of Africa to become the world's third jihadist front, after Iraq and Afghanistan, could become a reality. As the Economist points out, it is of particular interest to the jihadists to lure Ethiopia, an ancient Christian civilization, into a war against Muslims. A 21st century crusade. The jihadists also know how reluctant Western powers will be to physically intervene in such a war, aside from military and economic aid and a few covert CIA operatives traipsing around Mogadishu.
Somalia has feared, since 9/11, that their lawless country would become the next setting for a battle between US-backed anti-terror forces and Al-Queda sympathizers. The situation was only exacerbated when the Islamist militia took control of Mogadishu from an alliance believed to be backed by the US. AllAfrica.com reports that the US and Ethiopian governments recently announced joint collaboration over intercepting terrorists probably attempting to seek haven in the Horn of Africa. Considering that Ethiopia and the US view most of the ruling Islamists as terrorists, this "cooperation" could have huge implications on Ethiopia's ability to interfere with Somali sovereignty in the name of the war on terror. But this is nothing new. The International Crisis Group, reported in 2005 that "in the rubble strewn streets of the ruined capital of this state without a government, Mogadishu, al-Qaeda operatives, jihadi extremists, Ethiopian security forces and Western-backed (US) counter-terrorism networks are engaged in a shadowy and complex contest waged by intimidation, abduction and assassination. The stage is set for the very crusade that jihadists have hoped for.
Rumors of training camps outside of Mogadishu abound. There is evidence of foreign fighters joining the jihadists in Mogadishu. The biggest concern, which should divert the attention of Westerners from N. Korea for a moment, is that the Somali struggle will give birth to potent terrorist cells, with trained and disciplined jihadists infiltrating the large Somali communities in America, Canada, and Europe.
Moreover, other humanitarian implications of the looming crisis are worrisome. First, large numbers of refugees have been arriving in Kenya in recent days to escape the possible violence adding to the instability of that country and threatening to involve Kenya in the conflict. Second, famine is a dreadful possibility in the Horn this year. The Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that if the rains fail later in the year, some 3.6 million Somalis (about a third of the country) will be in need of international assistance, which is unlikely to be provided if aid workers cannot get into the already difficult country because of war and terrorist attacks. While it may not appear to the outside world that Somalia has made any progress in the past 15 years, resumed warfare is likely to take Somalia back to 1991, the beginning of it's civil war, having a potentially catastrophic effect both internationally and domestically.
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