Transnational Law Blog

Former US President Says China Agreed to US Sales of Arms to Taiwan

During a ceremony last Thursday in Beijing marking 28 years of U.S.-China relations former US President Jimmy Carter gave details about his two years of negotiations with Chinese officials to normalize relations in 1979.  He said China's acceptance of Washington's continued defensive weapons sales to Taiwan was key to the U.S. dropping of diplomatic relations with Taipei in favor of Beijing (h/t China Confidential).

Mr. Carter said the U.S. was determined to maintain economic relations with Taiwan and also to provide defensive weapons to the self-ruled island, which China claims as its own. He said the U.S. agreement to drop diplomatic recognition of Taiwan for China was conditional on Beijing's acceptance that the U.S. would continue to offer defense to its long-time ally in Taipei.

"We finally reached the agreement that the United States would make public our statement, which many Chinese still don't like, that we have an obligation to help preserve the safety of the Chinese who live on Taiwan and that we would provide them with defensive weapons only, a pledge I honored, but that we knew that the Chinese would not agree with this publicly but that they would accept it privately," Mr. Carter recalled.

Beijing continues to scold Washington for its occasional weapons sales to Taiwan.

China's Foreign Ministry recently hinted the weapons sales might be one reason for Beijing's refusal to allow a scheduled Thanksgiving visit to Hong Kong by a U.S. aircraft carrier group. The last-minute cancellation upset thousands of sailors and their family members who had flown into Hong Kong for the holiday, and sent a chill over U.S.-China military relations.

Foreign Policy in Focus features an excellent series of essays debating each side of the various Taiwan issues. It gives the following summary of the essays: "Ian Williams argues that the United States should not abandon Taiwan in its time of need in his essay Support Taiwan's Democracy. Yu Bin disagrees in America's Rogue Ally: Taiwan's uncompromising push for independence is destabilizing the region. Ian Williams responds by emphasizing Taiwan's Right to a State. Yu Bin's answer: Making Democracy Safe for the World."

Although I present you with information about both sides of the debate, I am a staunch supporter of independence and recognized statehood for Taiwan.  Sadly, China is hellbent on invading Taiwan, and it will surely happen if the US withdraws its support.  If you know someone that doesn't know about Taiwan, inform them of the issues. Tell them to be concerned about the issue before China invades. Tell them to put a "Keep Taiwan Free" bumper sticker next to their "Free Tibet" sticker.

Why is the USA Defying China for the Sake of Tibet and Not Taiwan?

It seems quite odd the support the Bush administration is lavishing upon the Dalai Lama when they refuse to publicly acknowledge the independence of Taiwan, a democratically ruled country that China continually threatens to invade if it makes any claims of independence.

On Wednesday, October 17th, President Bush presented the Dalai Lama with the U.S. Congress' highest civilian award, the Congressional Gold Medal. According to China Confidential and Yahoo News, China responded by postponing talks in Berlin with the UN Security Council about the Iranian nuclear crisis.

"I think they (the Chinese) had indigestion ... over the presence of certain spiritual leaders and an event in Congress," said a US State Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity. "It is extraneous to Iranian issues."

It seems quite odd that the Bush administration would choose now as the time to recognize the Dalai Lama as a "universal symbol of peace and tolerance, a shepherd of the faithful and a keeper of the flame for his people," which is how Bush described the exiled leader of Tibet. The Bush administration may have ulterior motives for delaying talks with the UN Security Council about the crisis in Iran. Namely, if the US is preparing to invade Iran on the grounds that it must prevent a nuclear Iran, then it doesn't make much sense to participate in events that would handle the problem diplomatically.

China said that the event supported Tibetan separatism, which goes against the "One China" policy legislated by the Chinese government in 2005. Most people think of the "One China" policy as being a ploy to justify invading Taiwan, but it also justifies using any means necessary to keep Tibet as part of China. It is unclear why the Bush administration would willingly cross China on this issue when it concerns Tibet but not Taiwan. It could simply be that there is still the possibility of war between Taiwan and China and the US would likely be in the middle of any conflict between Taiwan and China. When it comes to Tibet, however, the damage has already been done, and it's quite obvious that the US isn't willing to do anything more to help the Tibetan people than hang medals around the neck of their exiled leader and whisper disparaging remarks about China's human rights abuses.

When Will China Invade Taiwan?

Despite support from Ozzy Osbourne (see here), Taiwan's bid for United Nations admission has been rejected, again, making this the fifteenth time Taiwan has been denied since it began its attempts for UN membership in 1993. As mentioned in a previous post, the UN charter says that "Membership in the United Nations is open to all other [non-founding] peace-loving states which accept the obligations contained in the present Charter and, in the judgment of the Organization, are able and willing to carry out these obligations." There is no doubt that Taiwan is a peace-loving state, willing to accept the obligations that would be put upon it by the UN if membership was granted. However, the authoritarian China has once again bullied the rest of the world into refusing democratic Taiwan's bid for membership.

In a recent interview, Taiwan President Chen Shui-Bian said, "The Chinese government is trying to push us up against a wall. We are not part of the UN because Beijing does not recognize us as a sovereign state. Besides, Beijing insists on its One China policy, and Beijing oppresses us by claiming that we are merely a local government. This demeans us and weakens our position. But 23 million Taiwanese know that Taiwan is a sovereign state and that under no circumstances do we belong to China."

Whether China will invade Taiwan is slowly transforming into simply a question of when, and the general opinion seems to be that China will not invade before the 2008 Olympic Games. Taiwan President Chen said, "Western countries should not overlook the fact that the Chinese threaten Taiwan militarily. They had about 200 missiles pointed at us in 2000. Today it's 988. Beijing has increased its military budget by a double-digit percentage each year since 1989. An anti-secession law was adopted in 2005, creating a legal basis for an attack on Taiwan. The Chinese military is expected to be capable of attacking Taiwan by 2010, and conquering the entire island in a single strike by 2015. The world should not ignore these facts."

The United States is obligated by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 to defend Taiwan from military aggressors, including China. However, since 9/11, China has become an indispensable ally of the US, who needs China to diplomatically handle the threats of North Korea and Iran. The US is too bogged down in the war in the Middle East to defend Taiwan from an invasion by China. Consequently, the Bush administration is opposed to either country unilaterally disturbing the status quo.

Yuan Jing-Dong, professor of international policy studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, said the following in an excellent article entitled, China, US delicately Juggle Taiwan:

The Sino-US relationship has evolved into one characterized as cooperative, constructive and candid or, to quote President Bush, "complex". Beijing and Washington cooperate on a whole range of issues, from the North Korean and Iranian nuclear challenges, to the environment and global warming, to the "global war on terrorism". China and the US have become ever more interdependent economically, with bilateral trade surpassing US$300 billion this year.

Both have come to recognize the importance of handling the delicate Taiwan issue. Washington seeks to maintain the status quo so it can stay focused on its "war on terrorism" and on combating the spread of weapons of mass destruction. Beijing recognizes the role that the US can play in reining in Taiwanese independence even as it continues its military preparation to deter and respond to such a scenario.

It is my opinion that the only possible way the US can invade Iran is if it sells out Taiwan. Despite its obligations to the US and the UN, China has been selling weapons, missile technology, and nuclear technology to Iran, which are used to bolster Iran's military as well as the military forces of its allies that are in Afghanistan and Iraq (see here). Obviously China realizes that if the US ever wants to defeat its enemies in the Middle East, it will have to make a deal with China, and the US's best bargaining chip is the island of Taiwan.       

Taiwan Gets a Little Help From Ozzy

President Chen Shui-bian said Taiwan will press ahead with a referendum on whether the self-ruled island should apply for U.N. membership under the name Taiwan, dismissing U.S. objections as appeasement of China, said a recent article in the Washington Post. Taiwan's 14 previous attempts to be recognized by the UN have failed, but this time Taiwan is getting support from rock legend Ozzy Osbourne.

Ozzy Osbourne, a satanic-theme rocker known for biting heads off bats on stage, is helping set up 20 U.S. gigs and paying some transport costs to help a Taiwan band promote Taiwan's recent move for U.N. membership (see here). The band, named ChthoniC, will travel to at least 80 cities in four countries by the end of the year, supported in part by the Taiwan government, which is providing pro-U.N. literature and a slogan-painted truck.

China Plans to Expand Nuclear Cooperation with Pakistan in Response to US-India Nuclear Cooperation Deal

China's decision to help Pakistan expand its nuclear power program is undoubtedly motivated by the US Senate's recent approval of a US-India nuclear cooperation deal. China's impending deal with Pakistan represents the Chinese mindset about the downfall of America. The positioning of global players by China is meant to ensure that the US will be in no position to stop China if/when the time comes for it to invade and conquer Taiwan.

India and Pakistan both staged nuclear explosions in 1998 and have refused to joined the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) that would oblige them to give up atomic weapons. Regarding the US congressional-executive agreement to provide India with nuclear power technology, Opinio Juris said:

This deal no doubt reflects the importance of India as a strategic ally for the U.S. It also represents a shift in U.S. strategy for controlling the use of nuclear weapons. The old U.S. strategy: no one gets nukes unless they submit to international treaty regimes. The new U.S. strategy: friends like India get help in peacefully controlling their nukes, enemies like Iran and North Korea get ugly threats of sanctions even if neither India, Iran, nor North Korea are currently part of the international non-proliferation treaty regime.

Chinese President Hu Jintao is expected to unveil an expansion of nuclear power cooperation with Pakistan when he visits next week, testing China's balance between Pakistan and India, according to an article by Reuters. "But even a vague agreement will remind the world that China values its 'all-weather friend' Pakistan, even while Beijing courts India, a sometimes bitter rival of both countries." 

The UN Should Recognize Taiwan's Right to Representation

The Volokh Conspiracy Blog has an excellent post entitled, "Taiwan's Right to Representation in the UN". Amongst numerous historical arguments, the post elucidates several reasons why Taiwan deserves its own representation in the UN. The basic argument is not that Taiwan should represent China in the UN but simply that Taiwan deserves it's own seat as an independent, sovereign nation. In 1971, Twenty-two years after Chiang Kai-shek and his armies fled mainland China to Taiwan, the UN determined that Beijing and not Taipei should represent China at the UN. However, UN Resolution 2758 only addressed the question of whether the Mao or the Chiang regime should hold the seat and it was silent about the matter of Taiwan's independence.

The post stated that "it is important for the public and the diplomatic community to recognize the illegitimacy of Taiwan being denied its rightful place in the United Nations." Article 4 of the UN Charter says that "Membership in the United Nations is open to all other [non-founding] peace-loving states which accept the obligations contained in the present Charter and, in the judgment of the Organization, are able and willing to carry out these obligations." As the Volokh Conspiracy Blog pointed out:

Taiwan is indisputably a "peace-loving" state — in marked contrast to China, which not only makes threats against Taiwan, but supplies arms and financial support to warlords, dictators, and genocidaires around the world, including in Sudan.