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September 28, 2007


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Though your post gives a different viewpoint for the whole china-taiwan issue, I honestly doubt that China will attempt an invasion.

For one, any such war would necessarily disrupt much of asia, and Japan will probably jump into the picture militarily, just to try and keep China in check. India or pakistan would also enter the fray, I think, depending on which state it is closest to at that time of invasion (especially on the part of India, which has been pursuing a "many friends" form of foreign policy). And the U.S., for all its protestations to Taiwan not to rock the boat, would not want to be seen as just abandoning taiwan, especially after its continuing series of foreign policy debacles (i.e. iraq, afghanistan, etc).

Also, as to your point on Taiwan as a bargaining chip for Iran-- one must also note the coming US presidential elections, which makes Bush already in effect a lame duck president. It is unlikely that he will have the political will or muscle to engage in another invasion in the middle east, especially with so many of his resources already tied up in afghanistan and iraq. And I highly doubt if the next US president would want to be lumped into the same category as that of Pres. Bush (i.e. invader, warmonger, etc), and so the next president, whether republican or democrat, will probably spend time pulling out of the middle east rather than jumping into another middle eastern state.

Just my opinions on the subject matter.


I too doubt that China would ever invade Taiwan. Such an invasion would destabilize the region and put China's economy in jeopardy. Foreign direct investment will quickly dry up if China invades Taiwan (the risk substantially increases when a country is at war). I have always believed that much of China's stance on Taiwan is face-saving.


I hope you're both right. The last thing in the world I want is for China to invade Taiwan.

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