When Will China Invade Taiwan?

Despite support from Ozzy Osbourne (see here), Taiwan's bid for United Nations admission has been rejected, again, making this the fifteenth time Taiwan has been denied since it began its attempts for UN membership in 1993. As mentioned in a previous post, the UN charter says that "Membership in the United Nations is open to all other [non-founding] peace-loving states which accept the obligations contained in the present Charter and, in the judgment of the Organization, are able and willing to carry out these obligations." There is no doubt that Taiwan is a peace-loving state, willing to accept the obligations that would be put upon it by the UN if membership was granted. However, the authoritarian China has once again bullied the rest of the world into refusing democratic Taiwan's bid for membership.

In a recent interview, Taiwan President Chen Shui-Bian said, "The Chinese government is trying to push us up against a wall. We are not part of the UN because Beijing does not recognize us as a sovereign state. Besides, Beijing insists on its One China policy, and Beijing oppresses us by claiming that we are merely a local government. This demeans us and weakens our position. But 23 million Taiwanese know that Taiwan is a sovereign state and that under no circumstances do we belong to China."

Whether China will invade Taiwan is slowly transforming into simply a question of when, and the general opinion seems to be that China will not invade before the 2008 Olympic Games. Taiwan President Chen said, "Western countries should not overlook the fact that the Chinese threaten Taiwan militarily. They had about 200 missiles pointed at us in 2000. Today it's 988. Beijing has increased its military budget by a double-digit percentage each year since 1989. An anti-secession law was adopted in 2005, creating a legal basis for an attack on Taiwan. The Chinese military is expected to be capable of attacking Taiwan by 2010, and conquering the entire island in a single strike by 2015. The world should not ignore these facts."

The United States is obligated by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 to defend Taiwan from military aggressors, including China. However, since 9/11, China has become an indispensable ally of the US, who needs China to diplomatically handle the threats of North Korea and Iran. The US is too bogged down in the war in the Middle East to defend Taiwan from an invasion by China. Consequently, the Bush administration is opposed to either country unilaterally disturbing the status quo.

Yuan Jing-Dong, professor of international policy studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, said the following in an excellent article entitled, China, US delicately Juggle Taiwan:

The Sino-US relationship has evolved into one characterized as cooperative, constructive and candid or, to quote President Bush, "complex". Beijing and Washington cooperate on a whole range of issues, from the North Korean and Iranian nuclear challenges, to the environment and global warming, to the "global war on terrorism". China and the US have become ever more interdependent economically, with bilateral trade surpassing US$300 billion this year.

Both have come to recognize the importance of handling the delicate Taiwan issue. Washington seeks to maintain the status quo so it can stay focused on its "war on terrorism" and on combating the spread of weapons of mass destruction. Beijing recognizes the role that the US can play in reining in Taiwanese independence even as it continues its military preparation to deter and respond to such a scenario.

It is my opinion that the only possible way the US can invade Iran is if it sells out Taiwan. Despite its obligations to the US and the UN, China has been selling weapons, missile technology, and nuclear technology to Iran, which are used to bolster Iran's military as well as the military forces of its allies that are in Afghanistan and Iraq (see here). Obviously China realizes that if the US ever wants to defeat its enemies in the Middle East, it will have to make a deal with China, and the US's best bargaining chip is the island of Taiwan.       

Comments

[Kelvin]

Though your post gives a different viewpoint for the whole china-taiwan issue, I honestly doubt that China will attempt an invasion.

For one, any such war would necessarily disrupt much of asia, and Japan will probably jump into the picture militarily, just to try and keep China in check. India or pakistan would also enter the fray, I think, depending on which state it is closest to at that time of invasion (especially on the part of India, which has been pursuing a "many friends" form of foreign policy). And the U.S., for all its protestations to Taiwan not to rock the boat, would not want to be seen as just abandoning taiwan, especially after its continuing series of foreign policy debacles (i.e. iraq, afghanistan, etc).

Also, as to your point on Taiwan as a bargaining chip for Iran-- one must also note the coming US presidential elections, which makes Bush already in effect a lame duck president. It is unlikely that he will have the political will or muscle to engage in another invasion in the middle east, especially with so many of his resources already tied up in afghanistan and iraq. And I highly doubt if the next US president would want to be lumped into the same category as that of Pres. Bush (i.e. invader, warmonger, etc), and so the next president, whether republican or democrat, will probably spend time pulling out of the middle east rather than jumping into another middle eastern state.

Just my opinions on the subject matter.

[Alfred]

I too doubt that China would ever invade Taiwan. Such an invasion would destabilize the region and put China's economy in jeopardy. Foreign direct investment will quickly dry up if China invades Taiwan (the risk substantially increases when a country is at war). I have always believed that much of China's stance on Taiwan is face-saving.

[Travis]

I hope you're both right. The last thing in the world I want is for China to invade Taiwan.